First off, I'd like to thank this thread for giving me my topic for this post. I doubt I would have considered this idea otherwise.
Expectations are the driving force of being a music fan, sure... you'll probably discover new bands each and every year but it's the bands you already know and love that you look forward to the most. Sometimes these expectations can actually hurt a band, even if it's not totally fair (Toro y Moi and Justice say hi). The worst thing is when a band completely goes up in flames and releases something that barely resembles their previous work (Tapes 'n Tapes and The Rapture say hi). So let's talk about odds for the possible upcoming albums I care about.
Animal Collective - Untitled 9th Studio Album
I think Animal Collective has proven themselves to not only be great at exceeding expectations, but constantly re-inventing themselves too. I urge everyone not to listen to the live bootlegs of their new songs because it's likely all of them will morph another half dozen times before it makes the record anyway. As well as half a dozen times AFTER the album actually comes out. As a band that have released 6 solid albums in a row now I'm certainly not betting against them.
SUCCESS-O-METER: 90%
Madvillian - Untitled 2nd Studio Album
I don't think either Madlib or Doom are resurrecting this project because of the art, but because it's the most successful release either one of them have ever had. I expect them to have a commercial single somewhere on this list to try to take a stab at the mainstream. The original is such a classic that I feel this very well could be a let down. Or the best hip-hop album of the year, one of those things.
SUCCESS-O-METER: 50%
Das Racist - Solo Mixtapes
It's no secret that Relax was an album that didn't live up to the lofty expectations that most fans had for it. I still haven't given up on Das Racist though, I'm so suspicious that they actually put any real effort into Relax as a joke. They're totally the kind of group that would fuck with their fans just because it's a commercial album and release the good stuff for free. So what about their next free release? The solo mixtapes dropping on January 1st really don't bode all that well for me. I hope all 3 albums feature a lot of guest spots from the other members of the group. The real mystery here is Dap's tape... we're presumably finally going to hear the guy rap!
SUCCESS-O-METER: Heems 40% // Kool A.D. 60% // Dapwell 15%
Kanye West - 6th Studio Album
Kanye West is dealing with the fact that EVERYBODY praised My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy to the point of ad-nauseam. I'm looking forward to this album as much as most high-school kids are and that's kind of a new feeling for me. Can he please everybody? well... he's pretty much made a career out of doing that so far so what's one more? If he really wants to be successful he'll do more tracks with Justin Vernon, because while I've never been a fan of the whole Bon Iver thing I can't deny how great their collaborations on MBDTF worked out. His aesthetic really worked perfectly with that of Kanye's... with "Lost in the World" being one of the biggest highlights of that record.
SUCCESS-O-METER: 80%
Nas - Life is Good
Nas's post-Illmatic work has always kind of been hit or miss with me, but I have high hopes for his new album. The rumors of this album are numerous with Swizz Beatz, DJ Premier, The Alchemist, Dr. Dre, Statik Selektah, Kanye West, RZA, and Salaam Remi all being thrown around as possibke producers. Normally I'd say the guy is really talented and set the odds at 50% and call it a day, but I've got a really good feeling about this one because of how much I liked "Nasty".
SUCCESS-O-METER: 70%
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